Thursday, May 18, 2006

Lost Wonders, New Doorways

Quite a lot has been going on in the last couple of days for me.

There has been a shift in plans for the business idea I've been working on - I'm going to a smaller sized operation if I am able to raise approximately $3000. But that operation will have the ability to slowly expand and grow.

It will also be devastatingly competitive from the looks of the figures I've seen. :)

I checked out Wargame Supply after reading all the positive and gushing commentary on NZRAG. It's early days yet for the business, but I wasn't that impressed by it. They have a reasonable mix of roleplaying games, although some of their stock is not likely to sell in a hurry and their prices are a bit all over the place. Most notable is how small the section is. Graphic has a bigger roleplaying section and cheaper prices. If they pulled finger and started ordering efficiently, they would be a better option.

Most telling is how WGS is focused on miniatures. Having been in miniature retail before, one thing I learnt is to make sure that you order effectively to ensure sales. You also need to keep a reasonable stock of every item in the line. WGS has a broad range of miniatures - Confrontation looks very cool - but their prices risk putting them out of the market altogether.

Having said all that negative stuff, it is worth stating that they have barely been open a week. Given that the owner has no previous retail experience, it will take time for WGS to learn how to effectively present their business. But roleplayers alone are not going to support a shop like that. Wargamers and boardgamers are going to need to join in.

If anything WGS has convinced me that my business concept for roleplaying retail is the future of the hobby for the next few years. After talking with a couple of people in the industry it is becoming clear to me that for the hobby to have an increase in sales and development, it needs to change its approach.

Which brings me to Indie Press Revolution. While in some respects they are making a good move to consolidate indie publications for sale - they are not helping the growth of those lines. By trying to limit all internet sales to their site, they are making the classic distributor's error - stifling the spread of the product.

By selling only to brick and mortar businesses they limit themselves to local businesses over seas. In New Zealand and to a degree, Australia - most retailers will not even be aware that they exist.

The future of roleplaying lies in spreading the accessibility of the hobby, getting real sales people in behind the product and finding new approaches to selling games. It is naive to think that an inexperienced person who has no interest in the hobby is ever going to be able to sell the product effectively. In my experience roleplayers will just tell you to purchase their personal favourite game. You need to be aware of the entire industry and how it is developing, be able to spot future trends and identify the games that have a potential to sell next year to be a success.

To date, there are very few New Zealand businesses that meet that. In fact, from what I've seen there are very few games stores in the world that actually meet that.

So in the spirit of future trends, here are my predictions:

- Exalted Second Edition will find its feet and continue the growth of White-Wolf's business.
- Promethan: The Created will be more likely to draw old school World of Darkness players back into the fold. It will also bring in a number of new gamers into the line.
- Dungeons and Dragons 4th edition will stay a strong contender, but will lose WoTC precious regular custom.
- OGL businesses will continue to fall by the wayside. The next few years will see a rise in "house system" approaches, possibly more cautious Open Licences for supplements.
- Green Ronin will continue to rise in popularity. They are likely to make a major gaming coup with True 20 within the next five years.
- Fanpro will remain in 3rd or 4th ranking with Shadowrun 4th.
- Unhallowed Metropolis by Eos Press will see a boost in sales, but as to pushing Eos up in the rankings... it will be dependent on the quality of the product.

That's all the crystal ball gazing I'm going to make for now. Of course it is all purely speculation, but with the industry going into a slump at the moment, it will be interesting to see who weathers the hard times.

As for me? I will be making a move into the business within the next two months if all goes to plan. Keep an eye open for some surprising developments in the local scene...

Love and Huggles

Conan

Currently Reading: Wonders of the Lost Age
Currently Playing: Unknown Armies - To Go;Exalted
Mood: Still working on plans and ideas...


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