Politics and Perceptions

I find it sometimes amazing the capacity of some people to convince themselves that they couldn't possibly be wrong, as if all things in the universe have a defined black or white position. Often the world is made up of a mixture of all things.

What am I going on about?

Well it is the highly predictable, but still somewhat sad, response to the Dom Post's revelations last Wednesday.

Now part of this is based on how you choose to interact with your media. If you are like me, you take it as a cue rather than the full story. The media can only provide someone's point of view - either the person being interviewed or the journalist reporting the incident.

What we got from the Dominion Post last Wednesday is enough proof that the police were right to act in regards to the actions of certain individuals in the Ureweras. We did not get proof that the accused were terrorists, but that they were clearly involved in some disturbing activities that they have been less than honest about.

It did not prove that the Tuhoe are behind some conspiracy, nor did it prove that these guys were genuinely capable of following up the threats mentioned in the quotes provided.

What it did prove was that there wasn't some conspiracy to shut down activists - but it did suggest that those being investigated were using such communities to make contacts.

Yet now we are hearing from the people who were protesting against the suppressed 'evidence' decrying that the Dom Post has acted appallingly for revealing it. I'm sorry, can you say that again?

Now I do think that the Dom Post has potentially acted in contempt of court - that evidence being revealed, particularly in such an anonymous manner (which is probably how Fairfax will get around the contempt of court charges) will work against the accused getting a fair trial.

But I have no pity for the kind of person who tries to argue such BS as claiming the comments were taken out of context. It is abundantly clear that there was a sizeable history of these kinds of conversations amongst a group of people who were then meeting and partaking in military-style training with illegal weapons.

How much context do you need? I'm curious to know exactly how such comments could be taken in context with the greater picture provided by surveillance - and be called innocent. It's a hard sell. One I don't buy.

These guys were clearly involved in something illegal. They probably weren't terrorists, but they were up to something stupid and they were naive to think that the police wouldn't get involved with the kind of theatrics some of their members were getting up to.

Remember, the investigation began after one of these yahoos made threatening moves towards the Prime Minister - which eventually lead Police to find out about the rest of their activities.

If it was some sort of elaborate set-up to expose flaws in our legal system, then these guys are idiots. New Zealanders, in general, don't appreciate being led on a merry chase. Given that the racial hot buttons have been pressed as well, that will only further work against these guys. They have been exposed as racially motivated and acting against a nation that has been working hard to try to resolve racial issues.

I fail to see how 'kill some pakehas' could lead to anything other than an increase in racist sentiments. It is no different than National Front spouting some bullshit ethnic cleansing drivel about Maori.

Let's get that clear. The evidence presented gives more than enough for police to get warrants. Comparing it to the US invading Iraq is also a false analogy. Iraq was a sovereign nation. As much as the Tuhoe want sovereignty, they are a part of New Zealand's legal system and if there are idiotic anarchists acting illegally in their midst, the police are required to investigate and act.

Why aren't these people getting angry at Tame Iti and friends for being such boneheaded idiots as to reap such a response from the police.

As for not finding any weapons of mass destruction - a cache of illegal semi-automatics, molotov cocktails and an IRA training manual are exactly the kind of things that the warrants were in aid of finding.

Yet having found that they bet on the wrong horse, those people who stepped up too soon to decry foul are now seeming to be working just as hard and vocally to cover their tracks.

This is why I find it is important to wait for evidence. Without it, you are making pure speculation and risk serious backlash if you are wrong.

This saga is far from over. I suspect you will find that some of the 17 accused will be found innocent - from what I read in the paper, it seems to me that not all of them are behind this little posse. But I will not be surprised if there are a couple more twists in this tale.

I do think that Jamie Lockett and Tame Iti need to be taken down a rung or two. They are clearly arrogant men who are too smart for their own good. But terrorists? I'm not so sure. I think the SG took the right course of action...

Which clumsily seagues me into my second topic of the day - Polls.

In the current polls National lost ground between September and November. Labour is now on the way back to preferred party, with Helen Clark pipping John Key at the post by a mere 2-3 percent as preferred Prime Minister.

Currently the Maori Party holds the king-maker role if there were to be an election tomorrow. Current events would suggest that they would lean towards National over Labour, as Labour has been more than a little antagonistic towards them. But also, given the rather shameless politicking they have been doing recently - and which has kind of left them with egg on their faces - it is likely that neither National nor Labour would be willing to negotiate a favourable deal.

What could that mean for government?

Well let's face facts. Labour is more likely to be able to broker a successful deal. Helen Clark has a long and successful history of being able to make deals with parties to create a government. She has managed to keep the Greens on side even while offending them on several occasions. She is likely to be able to get NZ First on side again, and United Future's Peter Dunne will likely recognise that Helen is more likely to win over the Maori Party than John could - thus leaning over to her again. Regardless of what he would like to claim.

Why do I think this? Because National still has failed to understand how MMP works. They still think that government is theirs if they hold a majority. Any allies would soon find National wanting them to fall in line. Labour's policies take their allies in mind, and they know how to broker deals that get them the policies that they really want while also accepting their partner's perspective. I just can't see John Key having the kind of statesmanship to successfully pull this off. Most noticeably, if the Maori Party sign on with him, they will find that once government is sworn in, they will be helpless against a juggernaut party that will only be out to keep things at status quo.

It is still to close to call, but I predict a minority Labour party successfully brokering a complex (and likely confusing to onlookers) government and National will again be left sitting in opposition. John Key is not a true leader - he's not as wishy washy as Don Brash, but he is kind of bland. I predict we will see Bill English returning for the election after next. Bold, I know, but he has now learnt from his experiences and is well placed to oust John Key if National loses the next election.

Helen Clark is wise enough to let all the chest thumping and carry on happen now - she sees the long game and knows that it is better to act when people are holding their voting slips. The public is fickle, and if you get them when they are on your side - all the better. It's a technique that has helped them out in the past, I don't see them playing National's game now.

Laters!

Conan
Currently Reading: What they don't teach you in Film School.
Currently Playing: Ptolus
Mood: Interested in how things are developing